Fornelli 50 college football rankings: A few warning signs for Georgia down the stretchAdidas new zealandAir Jordan MalaysiaAir Jordan new zealandAir Max MalaysiaAir Max new zealandAdidas singaporeAdidas UKAir Jordan SingaporeAir Jordan AustraliaAir Jordan CanadaAir Jordan UKAir Max SingaporeAir Max AustraliaAir Max CanadaAir Max UKAdidas AustraliaAdidas SingaporeAdidas UKAdidas CanadaAir Jordan AustraliaAir Max SingaporeAir Jordan CanadaAir Max UKAir Jordan UKAir Jordan SingaporeAir Jordan CanadaCheap Real JordanCheap Authentic JordanWholesale Air VapormaxCheap Nike FoampositeCheap Onitsuka TigerWholesale Cheap Jordan
The Fornelli 50 ranks teams based on nothing but their performance in 2017
One of the benefits of a poll that uses mathematical data rather than a voter's opinion is that there is no recency bias. Too often in human polls we see a team that lost last week fall below a team it is likely better than simply because its loss was more recent, and fresher in our minds.
For instance, take a look at this week's AP Top 25, where TCU fell three spots to No. 11 after losing to Oklahoma. Now, three spots isn't far all things considered, but the Horned Frogs find themselves a spot below Oklahoma State. Both teams are 8-2 on the season, but you might remember that one of Oklahoma State's losses came to TCU. Since Oklahoma State won its last game, and that loss to TCU came earlier this season, recency bias leads us to believe that Oklahoma State's better than TCU is right now despite the fact we have tangible results proving it wasn't earlier this year.
That doesn't happen in the Fornelli 50. It doesn't matter when you lost; it only matters that you lost. I bring this up because there could be a disturbing result in this week's poll for Georgia.
The Bulldogs fell from No. 1 to No. 7 in this week's rankings, but it's not the number next to the name that's problematic. It's that, of all the one-loss teams remaining, Georgia fell below everyone except South Florida and Memphis. What's keeping it ahead of those two is a mix of defensive performance and strength of schedule. The Dawgs are behind both Clemson and Oklahoma, however, and considering that my formula weighs wins and losses more than anything, this suggests that it was Georgia's undefeated record propping it up all year more than its actual performance.
To be clear, this isn't any damning evidence against Georgia moving forward, but it isn't comforting either. While my formula has never been predictive of coming results from a week-to-week, matchup basis -- what I mean is, No. 4 isn't going to beat No. 10 just because it's ranked higher -- it does give a good idea of how a team is going to continue to perform over the course of the season. The fact Georgia is the lowest-ranked Power Five team with one loss -- and is behind UCF as well -- suggests a second loss could be more likely than Dawg fans want to think about right now.
So the loss to Auburn could prove to be a deathblow for Georgia's playoff hopes in the long run.
Now, before we get to the rankings, here's a quick reminder as to how it all works. If you'd like a more detailed explanation, you.
- My opinion has absolutely nothing to do with the rankings, they're math-based
- There is true equality to start as math doesn't play favorites
- Wins and losses mean more than anything
- The formula is in no way predictive, it's a meritocracy
- I won't share the formula, but it works
- Tuesday night's MAC results are not included in these rankings
|1. Alabama||10-0||Last week I wrote about how Alabama's score wasn't great for a No. 1 team. Well, it got worse this week despite the win over Mississippi State. (Last week: 1)|
|2. Wisconsin||10-0||The Formula believes in you more than the selection committee, Wisconsin. (3)|
|3. Miami||9-0||My rankings have been down on Miami all season, and they still aren't a huge fan, but the undefeated record makes it hard to keep the Canes out of the top three. (6)|
|4. Clemson||9-1||While Miami is 0.40 points behind Wisconsin, Clemson's only 0.24 points behind Miami. (4)|
|5. Oklahoma||9-1||And then there's the Sooners, who are 0.15 points behind Clemson. (8)|
|6. UCF||9-0||The Knights move up a spot despite their score getting worse. It's a byproduct of two top-five teams losing. (7)|
|7. Georgia||9-1||Last week, Georgia was 1.27 points behind Alabama. Now, it's 2.84 points back. (2)|
|8. Ohio State||8-2||Much like it's a bad sign for Georgia to be ranked so low with one loss, it's a good sign for Ohio State that it's the highest-ranked two-loss team. (12)|
|9. Penn State||8-2||No. 2 Wisconsin and No. 5 Oklahoma are separated by 0.80 points. Penn State is 0.42 points behind Ohio State. That's a big gap for one spot. (11)|
|10. Notre Dame||8-2||The biggest concern about Notre Dame was how one-dimensional it was on offense. We saw what happened when a team was able to take that dimension away. (5)|
|11. Auburn||8-2||The one concern about Georgia was how one-dimensional it was on offense. We saw what happened when Auburn took that dimension away. (16)|
|12. TCU||8-2||The Oklahoma loss obviously hurts, but the Horned Frogs should get a shot at revenge in a few weeks. (9)|
|13. Oklahoma State||8-2||The Cowboys are still in the Big 12 hunt, but they need help from Texas Tech or Baylor. (14)|
|14. USC||9-2||The selection committee seems to be more impressed by this team than either my formula or I am. (13)|
|15. Washington||8-2||Everything that I wrote about Georgia at the top of the page applied to Washington last week. The loss to Stanford wasn't a shock. (10)|
|16. South Florida||8-1||A bad schedule make it hard for the Bulls to climb much higher than this. (15)|
|17. Michigan||8-2||Michigan's propped up more by the 8-2 than anything else. (20)|
|18. Washington State||9-2||A combination of the losses themselves, and the manner in which those losses came is just an anchor on this team's ranking. (21)|
|19. Memphis||8-1||Do not sleep on this team's potential to win the AAC and take that G5 spot. (22)|
|20. Stanford||7-3||The Formula's always been higher on Stanford this season than I am. (24)|
|21. Boise State||8-2||Boise played in the best game you didn't watch on Saturday night (Sunday morning). (26)|
|22. Ohio||8-2||That win over Toledo was huge. (30)|
|23. West Virginia||7-3||The good Big 12 team nobody ever seems to talk about. (29)|
|24. Virginia Tech||7-3||AP voters were a bit harsh on the Hokies, no? (17)|
|25. Arizona||7-3||Just another 200+ yard rushing performance from Khalil Tate on Saturday. No big deal. (31)|
|26. Mississippi State||7-3||The Bulldogs moved up a spot in the AP Poll after losing to Alabama. That doesn't happen here. (18)|
|27. San Diego State||8-2||There's still a glimmer of hope left if the Aztecs want to win the Mountain West, but it's fading fast. (27)|
|28. NC State||7-3||NC State won't win the Atlantic, but it's still been a terrific season. (32)|
|29. Army||8-2||Oh, don't mind Army. It might just win 10 games this season is all. (33)|
|30. Northwestern||7-3||Congrats on only needing 60 minutes to win this week. (35)|
|31. Toledo||8-2||I enjoy them, but the MAC may want to reconsider mid-week games. I think it has a major impact on division races, and I'm not sure it's the right kind of impact. (19)|
|32. Troy||8-2||The Sun Belt might have the most exciting conference title race going right now. (34)|
|33. LSU||7-3||Ed Orgeron's having a typical "Fire Les Miles" season at LSU. (38)|
|34. Michigan State||7-3||The Formula never liked you Michigan State. The Formula was waiting for you to do exactly what you did against Ohio State. (23)|
|35. South Carolina||7-3||Will Muschamp has won 13 games at South Carolina since starting there last season. Jim McElwain won 12 games at Florida in the same time span. (37)|
|36. Iowa State||6-4||Iowa State could lose its next two games, and it wouldn't do anything to change my opinion on the job Matt Campbell's done there already. (25)|
|37. Iowa||6-4||This just isn't the same team on the road that it is at home. (28)|
|38. FAU||7-3||It's all about the (FA)U! (40)|
|39. Northern Illinois||7-3||The door is still slightly open if the Huskies want to win the West. (45)|
|40. Fresno State||7-3||The Formula's a much bigger fan of San Diego State, but Fresno State's still far more likely to win the division. (42)|
|41. UAB||7-3||How amazing is it that nobody would be too surprised to see UAB beat Florida this week? (41)|
|42. Marshall||7-3||It's been a beautiful bounceback season for the Herd. (43)|
|43. Houston||6-3||Houston had last week off. (39)|
|44. Kentucky||7-3||Kentucky is 7-3! (46)|
|45. Georgia Tech||5-4||Simple situation here. Georgia Tech at home is good. Georgia Tech on the road isn't. (NR)|
|46. Wake Forest||6-4||I think we all knew that come November the Deacs would be one of the most dangerous teams in the ACC. (NR)|
|47. Louisville||6-4||Lamar Jackson will likely finish 2017 with numbers similar to what he had last season, but I bet he doesn't get nearly as many Heisman Trophy votes. Another example of why it's so hard to win it twice. You have to be even better than amazing. (NR)|
|48. Wyoming||7-3||Josh Allen is improving. Not enough to make me think he should be a first-round draft pick, but enough to make me get it. (NR)|
|49. Navy||6-3||Notre Dame, Houston and Army is a rough way to finish the season. (NR)|
|50. Arkansas State||5-3||Arkansas State lost to South Alabama because South Alabama is having the weirdest damn season. (36)|
No Longer Ranked: SMU (44), UTSA (47), Virginia (48), Arizona State (49), FIU (50)
Though a marriage between the Vols and Gruden has been rumored for a while, it seems unlik...
Barrett Sallee is cashing on 67 percent of his best bets and gives 3 strong picks for Week...
The No. 16 Bulldogs will travel to Arkansas Saturday afternoon on CBS
The Owls are 7-3 overall and 6-0 in the Conference USA East division
Wisconsin has another chance to impress the committee
With the College Football Playoff in its sights, can the Bulldogs get back on track?